Market] December 2024 Alumina Market Analysis

I. Market Overview

In December, domestic spot prices for alumina fluctuated. In the first and middle part of the month, constrained ore supplies and unstable production at alumina plants kept prices at elevated levels, with both northern and southern markets experiencing high‑level volatility. By the latter half of the month, tighter domestic environmental regulations, declining overseas prices, shifts in downstream production, and uncertainty among buyers and sellers regarding the future supply‑demand outlook all contributed to a sustained downward trend, while trading activity in the spot market grew increasingly cautious.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Alumina Price

1. Domestic market prices

In December 2024, the domestic weighted average monthly spot price of alumina was RMB 5,750 per tonne, up RMB 233 per tonne from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 4.22%.

China Alumina Regional Price List (Unit: RMB/ton)

2. Overseas Market Prices

In December, cumulative overseas alumina transactions exceeded 225,000 tonnes. By month-end, the Australian FOB price stood at around USD 672 per tonne, down 14.2% month-on-month; shipping rates remained roughly unchanged from the previous month, hovering near USD 30 per tonne. According to Mysteel, in December, reports of protests erupting in Mozambique sparked force‑majeure events at a certain primary aluminum smelter, leading to sporadic low‑price deals in overseas markets and pushing spot prices lower. Meanwhile, a major international producer continues to grapple with disruptions to its imported bauxite supply: Guinea’s GAC bauxite exports have been suspended, resulting in the suspension of long-term contract shipments to this company, which remains unresolved as of year‑end.

Overseas spot price of alumina (unit: USD/ton)

(II) Alumina Production

According to Mysteel data, as of the end of December 2024, China’s installed alumina production capacity stood at 102.7 million tonnes per year, unchanged from the previous month but up 0.68% year on year. Operating capacity totaled 82.85 million tonnes per year, down 2.83% month on month but up 14.43% year on year. With the resumption of production still requiring time to ramp up and amid stricter pollution controls and recent declines in the stability of Guinea’s ore supply, domestic alumina output has been subject to frequent fluctuations.

China’s Alumina Production Capacity (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

China’s alumina production capacity and capacity utilization rate (unit: 10,000 tons)

(3) Import and Export Analysis

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2024, China imported 99,200 tonnes of alumina, up 1,486.69% month-on-month but down 23.1% year-on-year; exports totaled 191,300 tonnes, up 12.39% month-on-month and 43.61% year-on-year; net alumina exports reached 92,100 tonnes, down 43.83% month-on-month but up 2,090.25% year-on-year.

China’s Alumina Import and Export Situation (Unit: 10,000 tons)

(4) Supply and Demand Analysis

Supply side: As of the end of December, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at approximately 82.85 million tonnes per year. Affected by emission‑reduction policies, alumina producers in parts of Lüliang, Shanxi, and Henan have implemented temporary production cuts, leading to a decline in overall capacity.

Demand side: As of the end of December, China’s operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 43.5183 million tonnes per year, down 0.06% month-on-month. Demand remained broadly unchanged from the previous month, with no significant shifts.

2024 China Alumina Supply and Demand Balance (Unit: 10,000 tons)

(5) Cost–Profit Analysis

1. Cost Analysis

According to data from Mysteel, as of December 2024, the weighted average all-in cost for China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 3,585.4 per tonne, up approximately RMB 278.7 per tonne from the previous month.

Raw Materials Market: Domestic ore supply has seen only limited improvement, while overseas bauxite prices continue to rise. Costs for raw materials such as caustic soda and coal remain largely unchanged, keeping the market in a weak trading range.

Trend of China’s Weighted Average Alumina Cost (Unit: RMB/ton)

Analysis of the Cost Structure of Aluminum Oxide in China

2. Profit Analysis

According to Mysteel, in December, the average profit margin for China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 2,164.6 per ton, down RMB 46.2 per ton from the previous month. This month, amid mixed bullish and bearish factors, spot prices remained stagnant before trending lower; coupled with firm raw‑material prices, industry-wide profits edged down slightly.

Overseas Market Analysis

According to Mysteel data, overseas alumina production in November 2024 totaled 4.56 million tonnes, down 3.8% year on year.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, India’s Vedanta reported alumina production of 505,000 tonnes, up slightly by 1% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year. Affected by a red mud spill and disruptions in bauxite supplies from Guinea, its alumina output remained subdued throughout the second half of the year. A new bauxite project is slated to come on stream in the first quarter of 2025, which could help alleviate raw material constraints. Meanwhile, the UAE-based aluminum producer EGA has signed a bauxite supply agreement with Australia’s Metro Mining, with deliveries set to commence in the second quarter, potentially easing its supply challenges.

Monthly Overseas Alumina Production Analysis (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

III. Market Forecast

Currently, high profit margins continue to encourage alumina producers to maintain steady, high‑output operations, while losses at primary aluminum smelters are widening and sporadic production cuts are emerging, resulting in mixed dynamics on both the supply and demand sides. Looking ahead, downstream companies with secure long‑term contract execution and manageable raw material inventories remain inclined to push for lower prices. A downward trend in the spot market has largely taken hold, and domestic alumina prices are expected to fluctuate lower in January 2025, trading within a range of RMB 4,500–5,200 per tonne.

This article has been compiled and organized by Keda Dongda.

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Data source: MySteel.com