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China’s Alumina Production and Supply-Demand Balance in December 2025
2026-01-06
1. China’s alumina production in December 2025
In December 2025, China’s alumina production totaled 7.655 million tonnes, up 1.94% year on year, with an average daily output of 246,900 tonnes—down 2,900 tonnes from November 2025’s daily average of 249,800 tonnes. Although December’s daily output edged lower compared to November, overall supply remains in surplus. During the month, an alumina plant in Shanxi temporarily reduced output due to routine maintenance of its calcination furnace after completing its annual production target, while an alumina producer in Henan implemented phased shutdowns of its calcination furnaces owing to internal scheduling and adverse weather conditions.
With domestic alumina prices in December already falling below the industry’s cost threshold, compounded by cash‑cost losses in the Shanxi–Henan region, and with prices remaining at relatively low levels, we expect some alumina producers to curtail output in mid-to-late January. Meanwhile, as long‑term alumina contracts for 2026 begin to be signed, producers’ willingness to ramp up production may decline, leading to a corresponding reduction in capacity. Consequently, alumina operating rates are expected to edge lower in January, translating into a modest drop in supply. For January 2026, China’s daily alumina output is forecast to decline slightly from December, with domestic production reaching approximately 7.6 million tonnes.
2. Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Comparison for China’s Alumina and Primary Aluminum, December 2025
In December 2025, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production totaled 7.655 million tonnes. Based on actual vessel arrivals—rather than customs‑clearance dates—China imported 224,500 tonnes of alumina that month. Calculated from the time of departure—again, excluding customs‑clearance timing—exports amounted to 135,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, approximately 200,000 tonnes were used for non‑metallurgical-grade alumina. With China’s electrolytic aluminum output at 3.7846 million tonnes and an alumina consumption rate of 1.93 tonnes per tonne of aluminum, the country recorded a supply surplus of 240,200 tonnes in December, indicating that the alumina market remains oversupplied.
3. Monthly Supply-Demand Balance Forecast Comparison for China’s Alumina–Primary Aluminum Sector, January 2026
In January 2026, China’s alumina production is expected to total approximately 7.6 million tonnes, with non‑aluminum‑grade alumina accounting for about 190,000 tonnes. On the import side, alumina imports are forecast at roughly 249,000 tonnes, while exports are estimated at around 166,500 tonnes. Electrolytic aluminum output is projected at approximately 3.79 million tonnes. Based on an alumina consumption rate of 1.93 tonnes per tonne of aluminum, China is expected to see a supply surplus of 177,800 tonnes in January, indicating that the alumina market remains slightly oversupplied.
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