In 2025, the output of ten major nonferrous metals surpassed the 80-million-ton mark, with multiple industry indicators reaching all-time highs.

On February 3, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference on the 2025 performance of the nonferrous metals industry, adopting a hybrid format combining in-person and online participation. Chen Xuesen, a member of the Party Committee Standing Committee, Vice President, and spokesperson of the Association, briefed the media on the 2025 operating conditions of China’s nonferrous metals sector and engaged with heads of relevant departments...

　　On February 3, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference on the 2025 performance of the nonferrous metals industry, adopting a hybrid format combining in-person and online participation. Chen Xuesen, member of the Party Committee Standing Committee, Vice President, and spokesperson of the Association, briefed the media on the sector’s 2025 operating conditions and, together with heads of relevant departments, fielded questions from journalists and corporate representatives.

　　Chen Xuesen stated that the nonferrous metals industry has earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continuously strengthening policy guidance and factor‑supply support. As a result, it has achieved notable progress in areas such as industrial scale, technological innovation, international cooperation, spatial optimization, green development, and digitalization and intelligentization. The sector’s economic performance has recorded a historic leap, high‑quality development has yielded significant results, and all targets and tasks set forth in the industry’s 14th Five-Year Plan have been successfully accomplished.

　　Chen Xuesen pointed out that by 2025, the nonferrous metals industry will continue to deepen supply-side structural reform, vigorously advance its transformation toward intelligence, green practices, and integration, and achieve steady growth and quality improvement amid a complex market environment.

　　On the one hand, key indicators remain robust and improving, and the foundations for development continue to strengthen.

　　First, the output of major products reached a new record, with China maintaining its leading global share. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the industrial value added of nonferrous metal enterprises grew by 6.9%, outpacing the national growth rate for industries above designated size by 1.0 percentage point. Production of ten major nonferrous metals surpassed 80 million tonnes for the first time, reaching 81.75 million tonnes—a 3.9% increase over the previous year and an average annual growth rate of 5.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

　　By product segment, refined copper production reached 14.72 million tonnes, up 10.4% year on year, accounting for 47% of global output, with an average annual growth rate of 8.0% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Primary aluminum production totaled 45.02 million tonnes, a 2.4% increase over the previous year, representing 60% of global output, and posting an average annual growth rate of 3.9% under the same plan. Production of six major mine‑derived metals amounted to 6.19 million tonnes, up 3.4% year on year; alumina output stood at 92.45 million tonnes, up 8.0%; copper‑product output reached 24.81 million tonnes, up 4.7%, with an average annual growth rate of 3.3% during the 14th Five-Year Plan; while aluminum‑product output was 67.50 million tonnes, down 0.2% year on year, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 2.6% over the same period.

　　According to preliminary statistics from the various branches of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the new‑energy metals sector, industrial silicon production totaled 4.514 million tonnes, down 8.1% year on year; electrolytic nickel output reached 456,000 tonnes, up 25.4% year on year; refined cobalt production stood at 174,000 tonnes, a decrease of 15.4% compared with the previous year; and lithium carbonate output amounted to 944,000 tonnes, an increase of 34.7% over the prior year.

　　Second, the structure of fixed‑asset investment has been optimized, with a substantial increase in investment in the mining sector. In 2025, the nonferrous metals industry’s total fixed‑asset investment is expected to rise by 4.9% year on year, outpacing the national industrial investment growth rate by 2.3 percentage points. Specifically, fixed‑asset investment in the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation sector is projected to grow by 41.0% year on year, while that in the smelting and rolling processing sector is expected to decline by 4.2% year on year.

　　Private investment has fully regained momentum, with fixed‑asset investment by the private sector in China’s nonferrous metals industry rising 2.6% year on year. Specifically, private investment in the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation sector increased by 28.7% compared with the previous year, while private investment in the smelting and rolling processing sector declined by 3.9% year on year.

　　Third, foreign trade reached a new high, with robust momentum in export growth. The nonferrous metals industry actively implemented the series of policies introduced by the state, adopting multiple measures to help enterprises expand into international markets and effectively mitigate the impacts of risks and challenges such as Sino‑U.S. economic and trade tensions. By 2025, China’s total import and export value of nonferrous metals will have climbed to a new level, reaching US$412.24 billion, up 12.4% year on year, with an average annual growth rate of 24.2% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Specifically, imports totaled US$326.31 billion, up 9.6% year on year and averaging 23.5% annually over the plan period, while exports amounted to US$85.93 billion, up 24.2% year on year and growing at an average annual rate of 27.4% during the same period.

　　In 2025, among major import and export commodities, imports of copper ores and concentrates totaled 30.31 million tonnes, up 7.9% year on year; bauxite imports reached a record high of 200 million tonnes, an increase of 26.4% over the previous year; imports of unwrought copper and copper products amounted to 5.321 million tonnes, down 6.4% from the prior year; exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products stood at 6.134 million tonnes, a decline of 8.0% compared with the previous year; and rare earth exports totaled 63,000 tonnes, up 12.9% year on year.

　　Fourth, market prices showed marked divergence, with strong price trends observed across traditional industrial metals and precious metals. In 2025, on the domestic spot market, the annual average price of copper reached a record high of RMB 81,000 per tonne, up 8.0% year-on-year; aluminum averaged RMB 21,000 per tonne, up 3.9% year-on-year; lead averaged RMB 17,000 per tonne, down 1.6% year-on-year, though fourth-quarter prices rose 1.8% quarter-on-quarter compared to the third quarter; zinc averaged RMB 23,000 per tonne, down 2.0% year-on-year, with fourth-quarter prices increasing 1.3% quarter-on-quarter versus the third quarter. Precious metals delivered particularly strong performance, with the domestic gold spot market’s annual average price hitting a record high of RMB 796.8 per gram, up 45.3% year-on-year; domestic gold spot prices repeatedly broke through key thresholds, peaking at RMB 1,017 per gram.

　　New‑energy metals have generally followed a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rebound, with prices bottoming out and then recovering. By 2025, in the domestic spot market, the average annual price of industrial silicon is expected to be RMB 9,670 per tonne, down 26.1% year on year, though fourth‑quarter prices rose 6.0% quarter on quarter compared with the third quarter. The average annual price of battery‑grade lithium carbonate is projected at RMB 75,000 per tonne, a 16.3% decline from the previous year, yet its price recovery has been particularly pronounced, with fourth‑quarter prices up 20.2% quarter on quarter versus the third quarter. Nickel’s average annual price is forecast at RMB 124,000 per tonne, down 7.7% year on year, but December prices posted a month‑on‑month increase. Meanwhile, cobalt’s average annual price is expected to reach RMB 267,000 per tonne, up 31.7% year on year, with fourth‑quarter prices surging 51.3% quarter on quarter compared with the third quarter.

　　Fifth, corporate operating performance improved markedly, with asset size, revenue, and profits all reaching new record highs. Supported by the continued strengthening of macroeconomic and industrial policies, the sector’s growth momentum was fully unleashed. By 2025, China had more than 12,000 nonferrous metal enterprises above designated size, a 39.2% increase compared with the end of 2020. The total assets of these enterprises exceeded RMB 6.6 trillion, up 8.2% year on year, with an average annual growth rate of 6.2% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Operating revenue reached RMB 10.2 trillion, a 13.9% year-on-year increase, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 12.4% over the same period. Meanwhile, profits hit yet another record high, totaling RMB 528.45 billion, up 25.6% from the previous year, with an average annual growth rate of 18.2% during the 14th Five-Year Plan.

　　By sector, in 2025, the nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry is expected to report total profits of RMB 124.86 billion, up 36.1% year on year; the smelting and rolling processing industry is projected to post total profits of RMB 403.59 billion, an increase of 22.6% over the previous year.

　　Sixth, significant progress has been made in green transformation, with the energy intensity of major products reaching world‑leading levels. The entire industry has actively implemented the “Action Plan for Peaking Carbon Emissions in the Nonferrous Metals Sector,” driving energy conservation, carbon reduction, and green transformation in key areas. According to statistics, clean energy now accounts for one-third of the electricity consumed by the nonferrous metals sector, and the unit energy consumption of its major products has attained world‑class standards. By 2025, the comprehensive energy consumption for copper smelting is projected at 191 kilograms of standard coal per tonne, a 2.9% year‑on‑year decline, with an average annual reduction rate of 2.2% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period; the comprehensive AC power consumption for primary aluminum stands at 13,202 kilowatt-hours per tonne, down 0.5% from the previous year and approximately 800 kWh/tonne below the global average, with an average annual reduction rate of 0.47% over the same period.

　　It is worth noting that, according to carbon‑emission projections for 2025, China’s aluminum industry has already reached peak carbon emissions in 2024—six years ahead of the national “dual carbon” targets.

　　On the other hand, with industry policies being implemented and reforms deepening, the momentum for high-quality development continues to strengthen.

　　First, policies aimed at ensuring steady growth in the sector have been implemented with precision, clarifying the industry’s development trajectory. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with multiple other departments, has jointly issued documents such as the “Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025–2026),” the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025–2027),” and the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025–2027).” Through a range of measures—including technological innovation, structural optimization, industrial‑layout upgrading, and digital transformation—the industry is being steered away from mere scale expansion toward a focus on quality and efficiency, continuously fostering new drivers and competitive advantages, thereby charting a clear course for its healthy development over the next two years. Meanwhile, supply-side structural reform continues to deepen; building on the successful experience gained in electrolytic aluminum, targeted efforts are being undertaken to address the pronounced issues of “involutionary” and disorderly competition in sectors such as copper smelting and alumina, guiding the industry toward more rational and high‑quality development.

　　Second, coordinated efforts under the resource security‑guarantee strategy have significantly bolstered supply resilience. To enhance our capacity to ensure the security of strategic resources, we are pursuing a dual‑pronged approach that combines “control” with “circularity.” First, the precise implementation of export control policies for strategic metals such as rare earths has effectively safeguarded national resource security, preventing these critical resources from being diverted to sectors that could threaten national security and substantially strengthening China’s voice and influence in global resource governance. Second, the issuance of the “Notice on Matters Concerning the Regulation of Import Management for Recycled Black Powder and Recycled Steel Raw Materials Used in Lithium‑Ion Batteries” marks the first time that recycled black powder for lithium‑ion batteries has been granted legal import status, opening up a new pathway for resource circularity and further reinforcing the diversified safeguards for resource supply.

　　Third, we are proactively planning for the development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and steadily advancing the preparation of the relevant plan. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in close alignment with industry realities, is taking a pragmatic yet forward-looking approach to work closely with relevant government departments on drafting the “15th Five-Year Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry.” Centered on building a modernized nonferrous metals industrial system, the plan focuses on ensuring resource security and driving technological innovation, while clearly defining the industry’s development vision, key tasks, and implementation pathways for the next five years.

　　Chen Xuesen stated that, overall, the nonferrous metals industry is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2026. In the first quarter, it will build on the favorable momentum from late last year to continue operating smoothly, delivering a strong start to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period.

　　Barring any “black swan” events, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association projects that, first, in 2026 the nonferrous metals industry will maintain stable operations, with value added expected to grow by approximately 5% year on year. Based on the characteristics of nonferrous metal production and capacity‑building trends, output of the ten major nonferrous metals is forecast to increase by about 2% year on year, with refined copper output rising by roughly 5% and primary aluminum output remaining broadly unchanged.

　　Second, the industry’s operating revenue and profits are expected to continue growing. By 2026, prices for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are likely to stabilize and rebound, while the prices of major common nonferrous metals—copper and aluminum—are expected to remain volatile at elevated levels. The industry’s operating revenue is projected to increase by around 5%, with a modest rise in profits.

　　Third, investment is expected to remain on an upward trajectory, while import and export trade will face challenges. Downstream sectors such as photovoltaics, wind power, and lithium‑ion batteries continue to see surging demand for nickel, cobalt, lithium, and advanced metallic materials. Coupled with the effective implementation of national policies aimed at boosting consumption, fixed‑asset investment in the nonferrous metals industry is likely to sustain its growth momentum. However, amid geopolitical volatility, regional conflicts, and evolving U.S.–China trade relations, pressure on the sector’s imports and exports is mounting, potentially leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of nonferrous metal exports.

　　After years of sustained efforts, China’s nonferrous metals industry has continuously enhanced its global standing and competitiveness, leveraging its distinct scale advantages and a fully integrated industrial system. Looking ahead, in the face of the profound restructuring of global industrial structures and layouts driven by a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the nonferrous metals sector will be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, consolidate its leading position in key industries, strengthen the autonomy and controllability of its industrial and supply chains, and accelerate its transformation and upgrading toward high-end, intelligent, and green development, striving to secure a strong start during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.