[Market] Alumina Market Analysis – September 2025

In September, the spot alumina market showed clear signs of oversupply, with alumina producers beginning to build up their inventories and prices across all regions trending downward. In the short term, alumina producers are actively fulfilling long-term contracts, while traders are increasingly engaging in over‑selling; meanwhile, primary aluminum smelters have seen a significant year‑on‑year rise in raw material stocks, and demand for restocking remains subdued.

Market Overview

In September, the spot alumina market showed clear signs of oversupply, with alumina producers beginning to build up their inventories and prices trending lower across all regions. In the short term, alumina producers are actively fulfilling long-term contracts, while traders are increasingly engaging in over‑selling; meanwhile, primary aluminum smelters have seen a significant year‑on‑year rise in raw material stocks, and demand for restocking remains subdued.

Market Analysis

Alumina price

1. Domestic market prices

In September, domestic spot prices for alumina continued to decline slightly, with the monthly weighted average standing at RMB 3,072 per tonne—down RMB 170 per tonne from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24%.

2. Overseas Market Prices

In September, overseas alumina prices continued to weaken. By the end of the month, Australian FOB prices stood at around USD 321 per tonne, down 11.33% month-on-month, while sea freight rates remained steady at approximately USD 27 per tonne. According to reports, the current surplus of overseas alumina has gradually shifted to the spot market, with most of it flowing into the domestic market.

Alumina production

As of the end of September, China’s installed alumina production capacity stood at 114.7 million tonnes per year, unchanged from the previous quarter but up 11.68% year on year; operating capacity reached 97.0 million tonnes per year, up 3.41% quarter-on-quarter and 14.12% year on year.

Import and Export Analysis

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in August 2025, China imported 94,400 tonnes of alumina, down 25.02% month-on-month but up 1,398.89% year-on-year; the main sources were Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Exports totaled 180,500 tonnes, down 21.32% month-on-month but up 25.99% year-on-year, with Eastern Europe as the primary destination. Net alumina exports amounted to 86,100 tonnes, down 16.81% month-on-month and 37.14% year-on-year.

Supply and Demand Analysis

Supply side: As of the end of September, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at 97 million tonnes per year, up 2.4 million tonnes per year from the previous month. This month, with the exception of routine maintenance on calcination furnaces at a few alumina producers in Guangxi and Hebei, most regions maintained a strong commitment to stable, high‑output production.

Demand side: As of the end of September, China’s operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 44.54 million tonnes per year, up 300,000 tonnes per year from the previous month. Overall operations have remained largely stable, and with improved supply‑side execution efficiency, inventories of raw materials at electrolytic aluminum smelters have been steadily increasing.

Cost-Profit Analysis

1. Cost Analysis

As of September, the weighted average all-in cost for China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 2,808.83 per tonne, up approximately RMB 43.96 per tonne from the previous month, with both raw material prices and costs showing mixed movements.

Raw Materials Market:

In September, domestic ore prices edged lower, and the unit price of Guinean imported ore also declined slightly, confirming an overall downward trend in the fourth quarter. In the caustic soda market, as prices fell toward the cost‑based floor around 750, traders and some non‑aluminum downstream users began replenishing inventories, bringing prices close to their bottom. Meanwhile, thermal coal prices at producing regions mostly rose in September; however, following a rapid short‑term increase and the waning of temporary restocking demand, downstream buyers’ willingness to accept higher prices weakened by month’s end. Coal producers and traders grew more cautious about shipments, and most mines gradually began modestly cutting their quoted prices.

2. Profit Analysis

In September, the average profit for China’s alumina industry was RMB 263.17 per ton, down RMB 126.04 per ton from the previous month. Although sustained declines in alumina prices have increased margin pressure on some producers, production enthusiasm remains robust across regions; neither the north nor the south has yet undertaken large-scale maintenance or planned output cuts, and no proactive capacity adjustments have been observed.

Overseas Market Analysis

According to Mysteel data, overseas alumina production in August 2025 totaled 4.98 million tonnes, up 7.1% year on year. The year-on-year growth was driven primarily by the commissioning of new capacity, particularly in Asia.

In September, Brazil exported 764,000 tonnes of alumina, up 22% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. From January to September, Brazil’s cumulative alumina exports totaled 5.82 million tonnes, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with the bulk of the growth coming from shipments to the United States and Norway.

In the fourth quarter, additional overseas alumina capacity will continue to come online in India and Indonesia. The third-phase alumina project at Nanshan’s Bintan Alumina Plant in Indonesia remains in the ramp-up phase. Meanwhile, Vedanta is also expected to further increase production.

Market Forecast

Looking ahead to October, as aluminum oxide industry margins narrow and there is a slight potential for a decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter, and with fundamentals remaining unchanged, the reduction in marginal costs is likely to drive further downward pressure on aluminum oxide prices. We expect the price range for aluminum oxide next month to be 2,800–3,050 yuan per tonne.