Alumina and primary aluminum production costs in China, August 2025

In August 2025, the average all‑inclusive cost of China’s alumina industry, including taxes, stood at RMB 2,930.38 per tonne, down RMB 2.83 per tonne from July’s RMB 2,933.21, a month‑on‑month decrease of 0.10%, and up 1.71% year on year. In August, alumina raw material prices experienced both increases and decreases.

　　1. Average cost of China’s alumina industry in August 2025

　　In August 2025, the average all‑inclusive cost of China’s alumina industry was RMB 2,930.38 per ton, down RMB 2.83 per ton from July’s RMB 2,933.21—a month‑on‑month decline of 0.10%—while up 1.71% year on year. In August, alumina raw material prices exhibited both increases and decreases: domestic ore prices remained stable, but the cost of imported ore for producers fell; in the caustic soda market, trading activity stayed moderate, with limited sales pressure on companies, leading to a slight price hike; and in the thermal coal market, downstream demand remained robust, driving predominantly upward price movements. Overall, despite price rises in caustic soda and thermal coal, the reduced cost of imported ore this month resulted in a modest decline in the alumina industry’s overall cost structure.

　　2. Electricity prices for China’s electrolytic aluminum industry in August 2025

　　In August 2025, the average comprehensive electricity price for China’s electrolytic aluminum industry was RMB 0.3861 per kWh, down RMB 0.0062 per kWh from July 2025 (RMB 0.3923 per kWh), a decline of 1.58%, and 6.20% lower than the same period last year. The annual average electricity price in 2025 stood at RMB 0.4134 per kWh. On the thermal power side, electricity prices exhibit a certain lag relative to thermal coal prices. With increased market activity in July, domestic thermal coal prices shifted higher, prompting some enterprises to raise their thermal power tariffs, though the overall increase remained modest. Meanwhile, hydropower prices continued to fall due to the wet season. Overall, the comprehensive electricity price for the electrolytic aluminum sector declined month-on-month in August. Downstream demand remained robust in August, while domestic thermal coal prices were predominantly on the rise, which may lead to a slight uptick in thermal power prices in September. Hydropower prices, influenced by the wet season, are expected to remain low with limited volatility. All in all, it is anticipated that the comprehensive electricity price for the electrolytic aluminum industry will see a marginal month-on-month increase in September 2025.

　　3. Average Cost of China’s Electrolytic Aluminum Industry in August 2025

　　In August 2025, the average tax-inclusive production cost for China’s electrolytic aluminum industry was RMB 16,182.1 per tonne, up 0.12% month-on-month but down 7.99% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, the average tax-inclusive production cost stood at RMB 16,975.6 per tonne. In August 2025, the average tax-inclusive all‑in cost (including sales) for the Chinese electrolytic aluminum sector was RMB 16,545.42 per tonne, up 0.07% month-on-month. For the January–August period, the average all‑in cost (including sales) was RMB 17,341.7 per tonne. Regarding alumina, prices initially rose before reversing; localized supply tightness persisted in earlier periods, supporting a modest upward trend. However, as shipments improved and overall market supply shifted toward surplus, bearish sentiment strengthened, with transactions frequently trading at discounts to the spot price, thereby pushing alumina prices lower. The August alumina settlement price (July 26–August 25) was RMB 3,256 per tonne, up RMB 94 per tonne month-on-month, a 2.97% increase. As for prebaked anodes, a Shandong‑based aluminum smelter reduced its benchmark purchase price for prebaked anodes by RMB 10 per tonne in August 2025 compared with July, setting the cash‑price at RMB 4,739 per tonne. On the electricity front, the average comprehensive electricity tariff for China’s electrolytic aluminum industry in August 2025 was RMB 0.3861 per kWh, continuing to decline month-on-month. Overall, influenced by alumina price movements, the tax-inclusive production cost for China’s electrolytic aluminum sector registered a slight month-on-month increase in August. In terms of pricing, the BaiChuan YingFu spot settlement price in August 2025 was RMB 20,601.48 per tonne, down RMB 71.84 per tonne month-on-month, a 0.35% decline. Based on production costs, the theoretical average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry in August 2025 was RMB 4,419.38 per tonne, down 2.02% month-on-month, yet the sector continued to enjoy substantial profitability. Looking ahead to September 2025, prebaked anode prices and electricity tariffs may rise, while alumina prices could remain under downward pressure. Consequently, the industry’s theoretical cost is expected to stay broadly stable.