[Market] Alumina Market Analysis – October 2025

In October, as profits in the alumina industry continued to shrink, some alumina producers were already operating at a loss; however, overall capacity utilization remained relatively high. At present, only by coordinating production through concentrated output adjustments to maintain a tight supply‑demand balance can further deterioration of industry losses be averted.

Market Overview

In October, as profits in the alumina industry continued to shrink, some alumina producers were already operating at a loss; however, overall capacity utilization remained relatively high. At present, only by coordinating production through concentrated output adjustments to maintain a tight supply‑demand balance can further deterioration of industry losses be averted.

Market Analysis

Alumina price

1. Domestic market prices

In October, domestic spot prices for alumina continued to decline, with the weighted monthly average at RMB 2,920 per tonne—down RMB 152 per tonne from the previous month, a month-on-month drop of 4.95%.

2. Overseas Market Prices

In October, overseas alumina prices fluctuated within a narrow range. By the end of the month, Australian FOB prices stood at around USD 318 per tonne, down 0.93% month-on-month, while sea freight rates remained steady at approximately USD 27 per tonne. According to reports, some imported alumina shipments arrived in port throughout October, and the reopening of import arbitrage opportunities has boosted purchasing interest among downstream users. In the fourth quarter, additional overseas alumina supply is expected to come primarily from India and Indonesia.

Alumina production

As of the end of October, China’s installed alumina production capacity stood at 114.7 million tonnes per year, unchanged from the previous quarter but up 11.68% year on year; operating capacity totaled 96.4 million tonnes per year, down 0.62% quarter-on-quarter but up 17.27% year on year.

Import and Export Analysis

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2025, China imported 60,000 tonnes of alumina, down 36.44% month-on-month but up 61.73% year-on-year; exports totaled 246,400 tonnes, up 36.51% month-on-month and 82.23% year-on-year; net alumina exports reached 186,400 tonnes, up 116.49% month-on-month and 89.99% year-on-year.

Supply and Demand Analysis

Supply side: As of the end of October, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at 96.4 million tonnes per year, down 600,000 tonnes per year from the previous month. Aside from routine maintenance, overall production remained relatively stable this month.

On the demand side: As of the end of October, China’s operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 44.55 million tonnes per year, up slightly by 10,000 tonnes per year from the previous month. Overall capacity utilization remained relatively stable, with producers actively fulfilling long-term contracts and some smelters seeing steady increases in raw material inventories.

Cost-Profit Analysis

1. Cost Analysis

As of October, the weighted average cost in China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 2,796.6 per tonne, down roughly RMB 12.23 per tonne from the previous month. Raw material prices remained relatively stable, with imported bauxite continuing its downward trend, while costs for caustic soda and energy exhibited mixed movements.

Raw Materials Market:

In October, domestic ore prices remained largely stable, while imported ore prices began to decline, narrowing the price gap between mainstream grades. In the caustic soda market, Shandong’s liquid caustic soda prices first rose and then fell, whereas the western market saw an overall downward trend; in the eastern major producing regions, inventory pressures eased, prompting a modest rebound in lower-priced offerings. Meanwhile, the coal market in October exhibited a robust “off-season not weak” dynamic, with prices at producing sites and ports rising in tandem, supported by steadily improving supply‑demand fundamentals and broad-based price increases across all coal grades.

2. Profit Analysis

In October, the average profit margin in China’s alumina industry was RMB 117.4 per ton, down RMB 145.77 per ton from the previous month. Amid expectations of new coastal alumina projects coming on stream in the medium to long term and prospects for further cost reductions, most alumina producers remained cautious about implementing production cuts in response to the continued decline in alumina prices and the ongoing erosion of profitability.

Overseas Market Analysis

According to Mysteel data, overseas alumina production in September 2025 totaled 4.72 million tonnes, up 7% year on year. Asia posted the strongest growth, driven primarily by the commissioning of new capacity in Indonesia and the ramp-up of expanded projects in India.

In October, Brazil exported 874,000 tonnes of alumina, up 23.5% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year. From January to October, Brazil’s cumulative alumina exports totaled 6.64 million tonnes, a 6.4% increase compared with the same period last year, with the bulk of the growth coming from shipments to the United States and Norway.

In the third quarter, major overseas aluminum producers mostly posted year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases in alumina output. Specifically, Alumina Ltd. saw a 4% QoQ rise and a modest 0.7% YoY increase; Rio Tinto recorded a 4% QoQ gain and a 6.6% YoY jump; South32 reported a 1% QoQ uptick and an 8.8% YoY surge; Hydro posted a 1.8% QoQ decline but a 1.7% YoY rise; India’s Hindalco experienced a 3.3% QoQ drop and a 3.9% YoY contraction; while India’s Vedanta Aluminium posted an 11% QoQ increase and a 31% YoY expansion.

Market Forecast

Looking ahead to November, amid multiple pressures—including anticipated production controls in northern China, a slower-than-expected decline in costs, and intensifying overcapacity competition along the coast—some alumina producers are torn between proactively cutting output and maintaining current production levels. However, as long-term contract settlement prices continue to fall, certain producers may soon implement coordinated production cuts. Consequently, domestic alumina prices are expected to remain broadly stable but lean toward the weaker side in the short term, with a trading range of RMB 2,700–2,950 per tonne.