In 2025, the global alumina market is expected to undergo volatile adjustments, with China’s production capacity remaining at a high level, as the industry faces a rebalancing of supply and demand.

September 9, 2025 — Since the beginning of this year, the global alumina market has remained in a period of volatile adjustment. Affected by factors including the concentrated commissioning of new production capacity, ample bauxite supply, and a slowdown in demand growth, alumina prices have fallen sharply from their year-end 2024 peak and have continued to trade in a broad range during the first half of 2025.

　　September 9, 2025 — Since the beginning of this year, the global alumina market has remained in a period of volatile adjustment. Affected by factors such as the concentrated commissioning of new production capacity, ample bauxite supplies, and a slowdown in demand growth, alumina prices have fallen sharply from their year-end 2024 peak and continued to trade in a broad range during the first half of 2025. According to the latest industry data, China’s operating alumina capacity has now approached 96 million tonnes, with the domestic market expected to face an annual surplus of approximately 2 million tonnes, while the global surplus could reach 3.6 million tonnes.

　　Prices are fluctuating downward, but cost support remains.

　　At the end of 2024, alumina prices surged to a peak of RMB 5,540 per ton, but subsequently, driven by rapid supply expansion, they fell steadily to a low of RMB 2,663 per ton in May 2025. Since then, prices have been fluctuating within a range of RMB 2,700 to RMB 3,600 per ton. Analysts note that current price levels are now close to the cash‑cost threshold for some high‑cost producers, leading to a marked contraction in industry profits and prompting certain companies to proactively cut production in response to market pressures.

　　“Alumina prices remain in a bottoming-out phase, and without supply disruptions, a sustained rebound is unlikely in the short term,” said an analyst at Jinrui Futures. The analyst expects the fourth-quarter price range to hover between 2,900 and 3,300 yuan per tonne; however, if production cuts are imposed during the heating season or policy-related shocks occur, prices could stage a temporary rally to around 3,500 yuan per tonne.

　　Supply remains at high levels, while demand growth remains sluggish.

　　As of the end of August, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at approximately 95 million tonnes. With previously shut-down capacity gradually resuming production, an additional 1.6 million tonnes of capacity is expected to come back online. Despite potential disruptions in the fourth quarter from environmental‑related production curtailments and winter‑stockpiling demand, overall supply is likely to remain at elevated levels.

　　On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum—being the primary downstream application of alumina—has reached near‑maximum capacity, leaving limited room for further expansion. Although emerging sectors such as new‑energy vehicles and photovoltaics continue to drive aluminum consumption, traditional construction‑related demand remains sluggish, resulting in a slowdown in overall consumption growth. By 2025, China’s alumina consumption is expected to grow by only 5%, significantly below the pace of supply expansion.

　　Overseas capacity expansion is exacerbating global overcapacity.

　　In overseas markets, alumina projects in countries such as India and Indonesia continue to ramp up production, leading to a loosening of the global supply landscape. In Indonesia, Nanshan Aluminum still has 1 million tonnes of capacity slated for commissioning this year, and by 2025, overseas alumina oversupply is expected to reach approximately 1.6 million tonnes. Looking ahead, additional capacity totaling 5.25 million tonnes is planned in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other regions, which will subject the global alumina market to sustained supply pressures over the long term.

　　Enterprises are adjusting their strategies to enhance resource self-sufficiency.

　　Against the backdrop of market adjustments, leading domestic companies are accelerating resource integration and capacity optimization. In the first half of 2025, China Aluminum Corporation’s alumina output reached 8.6 million tonnes, up 4.88% year on year, while its self-sufficiency rate for alumina feedstock hit a five-year high. The company stated that it will continue to strengthen its resource security and enhance cost‑control capabilities to navigate market volatility.

　　Outlook: The industry has entered a period of deep adjustment.

　　Overall, the alumina industry is undergoing a critical transition from “rapid growth” to “high-quality development.” In the short term, prices will likely remain under pressure from supply-demand imbalances, prompting companies to enhance their core competitiveness through technological upgrades, resource integration, and green transformation. Looking ahead to the medium and long term, as the global aluminum value chain undergoes restructuring, the alumina market is poised for a new round of consolidation and realignment.