[Market] April 2025 Alumina Market Analysis

01 Market Overview: In April, domestic alumina spot prices initially declined before gradually stabilizing. Production cuts were reported in Shanxi and Henan, yet newly commissioned capacity began to come online. With industry margins continuing to shrink, alumina producers must maintain a tight supply‑demand balance through production adjustments to prevent further losses.

　　01 Market Overview

　　In April, domestic spot prices for alumina initially declined before gradually stabilizing. Production cuts were reported in Shanxi and Henan, yet newly commissioned capacity began to come online. With industry margins continuing to shrink, alumina producers can only avert further losses by adjusting output to keep supply and demand in a tight balance. Recent market feedback indicates that a short-term supply-demand mismatch has tightened spot availability, prompting a rebound in spot prices.

　　02 Market Analysis

　　Alumina price

　　1. Domestic market prices

　　In April, domestic spot prices for alumina continued to decline but showed signs of stabilizing. The monthly weighted average price of alumina was RMB 2,914 per tonne, down RMB 353 per tonne from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 10.81%.

　　China Alumina Regional Price List (Unit: RMB/ton)

　　2. Overseas Market Prices

　　In April, overseas alumina prices followed a trend of initial decline followed by a modest rebound. As of the end of April, Australian FOB prices stood at around USD 348 per tonne, down 7.94% month-on-month, while sea freight rates remained steady at approximately USD 25 per tonne. According to Mysteel, Indonesia’s Inalum is on track to bring its first-phase alumina production capacity of 1 million tonnes per year fully online, with plans to commence construction on the second phase this year; once completed, total capacity will reach 2 million tonnes per year.

　　Overseas spot price of alumina (unit: USD/ton)

　　Alumina production output

　　As of the end of April, China’s installed alumina production capacity stood at 108.9 million tonnes per year, unchanged from the previous quarter but up 6.45% year on year; operating capacity totaled 82.2 million tonnes per year, down 7.22% quarter-on-quarter and 0.84% year on year.

　　China’s Alumina Production Capacity (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

　　China’s Alumina Production and Capacity Utilization Rate (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

　　Import and Export Analysis

　　According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2025, China imported 11,200 tonnes of alumina, down 73.14% month-on-month and 96.31% year-on-year; it exported 296,700 tonnes, up 43.13% month-on-month and 105.87% year-on-year; net alumina exports totaled 285,500 tonnes, up 72.4% month-on-month but down 278.75% year-on-year.

　　In the first quarter of 2025, cumulative imports totaled 88,800 tonnes, down 90.63% year on year; cumulative exports reached 701,600 tonnes, up 66.40% year on year; and cumulative net exports amounted to 612,800 tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 216.56%.

　　China’s Alumina Import and Export Statistics (Unit: 10,000 tons)

　　Supply and Demand Analysis

　　Supply side: As of the end of April, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at approximately 82.2 million tonnes per year, down by about 6.4 million tonnes per year from the previous month. In addition to routine maintenance, several producers in Henan, Shanxi, Yunnan, and other regions have implemented long-term production‑cutting plans.

　　Demand side: As of the end of April, China’s operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 44.05 million tonnes per year, up slightly by 280,000 tonnes per year from the previous month. In the short term, domestic operating capacity has remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, downstream non‑aluminum sectors have shown a growing willingness to replenish inventories on dips, boosting near‑term demand in the non‑aluminum segment.

　　Alumina Supply and Demand Balance (Unit: 10,000 tons)

　　Cost-Profit Analysis

　　1. Cost Analysis

　　As of the end of April, the weighted average all-in cost for China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 3,033.4 per tonne, down approximately RMB 125 per tonne from the previous month.

　　Raw Materials Market: Domestic bauxite supply remains stable, with prices experiencing a slight decline; bauxite offers better value than imported ore, and the market overall remains in a state of supply shortage. The caustic soda market continues to weaken, with liquid chlorine prices in Shandong now largely at cost level. The thermal coal market first rose and then fell, with bearish sentiment prevailing in the mid-to-late period, putting downward pressure on coal prices at production sites.

　　Trend of China’s Weighted Average Alumina Cost (Unit: RMB/ton)

　　2. Profit Analysis

　　In April, the Chinese alumina industry recorded an average profit of –RMB 119.4 per ton, down RMB 219 per ton from the previous month, with only a small portion of capacity sustaining marginally profitable operations. Among them, certain alumina plants in Guangxi and Guizhou continue to generate modest profits, though operating pressures remain substantial; meanwhile, facilities in Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong are already experiencing cash‑flow losses.

　　Profit and Loss Situation in the Alumina Industry (Unit: RMB/ton)

　　Overseas Market Analysis

　　According to Mysteel data, overseas alumina production in March 2025 totaled 4.75 million tonnes, up 8.94% year on year. During the month, there were no reports of supply disruptions abroad, and major producing countries maintained stable operations.

　　Major overseas aluminum producers have reported their first-quarter operating results. Alumina production at Alumina Ltd. totaled 2.355 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, down 11.8% year over year and 1.46% quarter over quarter. Rio Tinto produced 1.921 million tonnes of alumina in the first quarter, up 3% year over year but down 4% quarter over quarter. Hydro’s alumina output reached 1.465 million tonnes, down 3% quarter over quarter and 2% year over year. South32’s first-quarter alumina production stood at 1.265 million tonnes, a 6.2% decline from the previous quarter and a 2% increase year over year. Vedanta’s alumina output was 431,000 tonnes, down 11% year over year and 15% quarter over quarter.

　　Monthly Overseas Alumina Production (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

　　Tracking of New Overseas Alumina Projects (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

　　03 Market Forecast

　　As maintenance-related production cuts become increasingly concentrated in certain regions and non‑aluminum demand picks up, the pronounced domestic overcapacity has begun to ease since mid-to-late April, leading to a decline in overall spot market turnover. Looking ahead, domestic alumina prices are expected to trend volatile but generally stronger in May, with a trading range of RMB 2,850–3,050 per tonne.

　　This article has been compiled and edited by Anhui Keda Clean Energy.

　　If you wish to reprint, please cite the source.

　　Data source: MySteel