[Market] Alumina Market Analysis – March 2025

In March, the spot alumina market saw robust trading activity, with alumina producers showing little inclination to cut production. However, as some plants began to post cash‑flow losses, a few long‑term contract holders have gradually implemented output reductions. With spot prices continuing to decline, the proportion of loss‑making companies in the sector is expected to widen further in the second quarter.

　　01 Market Overview

　　In March, the spot alumina market saw robust trading activity, with alumina producers showing little inclination to cut production. However, as some plants began to post cash‑flow losses, a few long‑term contract holders have gradually implemented output reductions. With spot prices continuing to decline, the proportion of loss‑making companies in the industry is expected to widen further in the second quarter.

　　02 Market Analysis

　　Alumina price

　　1. Domestic market prices

　　In March, domestic spot prices for alumina continued to decline, with the monthly weighted average at RMB 3,267 per tonne—down RMB 183 per tonne from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 5.30%.

　　China Alumina Regional Price List (Unit: RMB/ton)

　　2. Overseas Market Prices

　　In March, overseas alumina prices fell sharply. By the end of the month, Australian FOB prices stood at around USD 378 per tonne, down 22.06% month-on-month, while sea freight rates remained steady at approximately USD 25 per tonne. According to Mysteel, an Indonesian company’s 1 million tonnes per year metallurgical-grade alumina project has gradually ramped up production, and roughly 6.5 million tonnes per year of additional capacity is still slated for commissioning this year, further boosting global supply. Meanwhile, the slow ramp-up of certain electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia has intensified supply pressures in overseas markets.

　　Overseas spot price of alumina (unit: USD/ton)

　　Alumina production

　　According to Mysteel, as of the end of March, China’s installed alumina production capacity stood at 108.9 million tonnes per year, unchanged from the previous month but up 6.45% year on year; operating capacity totaled 88.6 million tonnes per year, down 2.85% month on month but up 10% year on year.

　　China’s Alumina Production Capacity (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

　　China’s Alumina Production and Capacity Utilization Rate (Unit: 10,000 tons)

　　Import and Export Analysis

　　According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in February 2025, China imported 41,700 tonnes of alumina, up 16.16% month-on-month but down 85.73% year-on-year; exports totaled 207,300 tonnes, up 4.71% month-on-month and 48.91% year-on-year; net alumina exports reached 165,600 tonnes, up 2.41% month-on-month but down 208.24% year-on-year.

　　China’s Alumina Import and Export Situation (Unit: 10,000 tons)

　　Supply and Demand Analysis

　　Supply side: As of the end of March, China’s operational alumina capacity stood at approximately 88.6 million tonnes per year, down by about 2.6 million tonnes per year from the previous month. Some alumina producers in Guangxi, Henan, Guizhou, and other regions have implemented modest production cuts.

　　On the demand side: As of the end of March, China’s operating electrolytic aluminum capacity stood at 43.77 million tonnes per year, up slightly month-on-month. The resumption of production in the Southwest region and a rise in the operating rates of non‑aluminum industries have supported steady, albeit modest, demand growth, while short-term rigid demand for alumina remains relatively strong.

　　Alumina Supply and Demand Balance (Unit: 10,000 tons)

　　Cost-Profit Analysis

　　1. Cost Analysis

　　According to Mysteel data, as of March, the weighted average all-in cost for China’s alumina industry stood at RMB 3,158.4 per tonne, down roughly RMB 255.62 per tonne from the previous month.

　　Raw Materials Market: Domestic bauxite prices have edged down, while domestic alumina producers show stronger demand for domestic ore than for imported material, providing a significant boost to domestic‑ore consumption. The caustic soda market initially rose before falling, with overall performance remaining weak. Meanwhile, the thermal coal market has followed a pattern of initial suppression followed by stabilization, punctuated by localized fluctuations, with coal prices trending steadily lower.

　　Trend of China’s Weighted Average Alumina Cost (Unit: RMB/ton)

　　2. Profit Analysis

　　According to Mysteel, in March, the Chinese alumina industry posted an average profit of RMB 99.6 per ton, up slightly by RMB 63.62 per ton from the previous month. The overall decline in alumina prices and the pace of the decline have both eased, with the industry operating at low profit margins and some regions reporting losses.

　　Overseas Market Analysis

　　According to Mysteel data, overseas alumina production in February 2025 totaled 4.36 million tonnes, down 4% year on year.

　　In Asia, new projects in Indonesia have begun ramping up production, while Vedanta’s output in India has declined. Australia’s alumina supply remains stable, with no reports of production cuts. Brazil’s alumina exports totaled 1.93 million tonnes in the first quarter, up 9.6% year over year.

　　Monthly Overseas Alumina Production (Unit: 10,000 tonnes)

　　Tracking of New Overseas Alumina Projects (Unit: 10,000 tons/year)

　　03 Market Forecast

　　As losses in the alumina industry continue to widen, production adjustments have been reported across the supply chain. However, the actual impact of these output cuts remains in the accumulation phase, and with expectations of new capacity coming online, bearish sentiment persists. Domestically, alumina prices are expected to trend volatile and slightly weaker in April, trading within a range of 2,800–3,200 yuan per tonne.

　　This article has been compiled and organized by Henan Keda.

　　If you wish to reprint, please cite the source.

　　Data source: MySteel